Week 2 Lines released

The lines for week 2 of the Waters Challenge

Friday, September 13, 2013
Patriots*		1:25 AM	Jets	+11.5
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Eagles*		6:00 PM	Chargers	+7.5
Ravens*		6:00 PM	Browns	+6.5
Texans*		6:00 PM	Titans	+9
Colts*		6:00 PM	Dolphins	+2.5
Panthers		6:00 PM	Bills*	+3
Falcons*		6:00 PM	Rams	+6.5
Packers		6:00 PM	Washington	+7.5
Kansas City*		6:00 PM	Cowboys	+3
Bears*		6:00 PM	Vikings	+6
Saints		9:05 PM	Buccaneers*	+3
Lions		9:05 PM	Cardinals*	+1.5
Raiders*		9:25 PM	Jaguars	+5.5
Broncos		9:25 PM	Giants*	+4.5
Monday, September 16, 2013
Seahawks*		1:30 AM	49ers	+3
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Bengals*		1:40 AM	Steelers	+7

Times are BST.


First off, these lines always look pretty tight when they're released on Wednesday even if by Sunday morning there'll be one or two that are off by up to 2 points. That leaves the temptation to just follow however the line is moving Saturday night which is just a fool's game. I'm just going to cap the games and worry about the numbers later.

That being said, I am very interested in the lines above that are in italics. As mentioned in my last post I was anticipating the Seahawks/49ers and Dolphins/Colts contest lines after seeing the opening lines on lineprojector.com. For the contest they've given the Dolphins +2.5 which maybe enough to deter me from personally taking them. My initial thoughts were that Miami could win outright but without the cushion of a field goal I'm not sure I can back them away from home (they went 1-7 and 2-6 in '11 and '12 respectively).

The game in Seattle is a funny one. The line opened +3 most places but has been bet down to +2.5, which would have been a very attractive pick on the Seahawks side had it been the contest line. In any case I'll likely find myself laying the three points.

As for the Bears/Vikings, I'm just happy they didn't put it at +7 because that's where I see it landing at game time. It's these little bits of value in the contest lines that I hope to exploit to resurrect my chances in the Challenge.

More on Saturday when I make my picks (no action on the Thursday game this week), and the unveiling of my handicapping experiment for this season!

The Great Sobbering

Presented in its entirety - the leader board of the Waters Challenge

http://waterschallenge.com/NFL/Leaderboard.html

If you didn't have the patience to scroll all the way down there to see my entry (@iamjimcon) be assured that it's there 5 places from the basement.

To have such an appalling record associated with your name hurts a little, even if you allow yourself to pass it off somewhat. I've reminded myself a dozen times today to not join the countless on twitter with their extraordinary overreactions to the football we witnessed this past weekend. With a little contextualizing I've been able to spare myself from a mini-anxiety attack.

For example, we got a nice shock to the system as the first ESPN Monday Night Football game kicked off and the new Eagles offense was unveiled. Oh boy! Sure enough, there are a lot of people claiming Chip Kelly is god, NFL offense will never be the same again, etc.

But this little tidbit I first saw on cbssports.com could be telling:

Chip Kelly's NFL debut Offensive #s : 77 plays, 443 yards, 33 points
Steve Spurrier's NFL debut Offensive #s : 73 plays, 442 yards, 31 points

It's not as if that info is predictive, but it does encourage caution. Those numbers won't be replicated week in, week out. (Michael Vick's poor decision making will see to that!)

But anyway, I'm not going to go overboard berating myself for my week 1 picks. Shit happens. And I wasn't the only one to suffer a little this weekend.

As Dave Tuley points out over on Predictmachine.com the entries in the LVH SuperContest combined for a 1766-2986-403 (37.2%) record. That's not good. 58 entries in the Waters Challenge hit 50% or better. That means 96 others couldn't even match the flip of a coin. (E&OE on my counting the entries there!)

However I'm still optimistic I can climb my way up the leader board come January. After all we're only 5 picks into an 85 pick tourney.

The lines for week 2 will post Wednesday night, and I think there'll be some interesting ones on there with the San Fran @ Seattle and Miami @ Indianapolis being the ones I'm most intrigued by.

Week 1 - Late Update

So I didn't get around to posting my picks before the games kicked off, but here's where I stand after the conclusion of all the early Sunday afternoon games.

I'M FUCKED!!!

I played the Ravens on Thursday night on the Super Bowl champs having won 11 of 12 season openers angle, along with being happy to have 7.5 pts in hand.

On Saturday night I added the Bears, Browns, Jaguars and Washington Professional Football Team.

The belief on this was they were all undervalued home teams. As it stands I'm on 1 point with Washington pending. Not exactly lighting it up. It's going to be pretty stressful capping next weeks games if I'm still on a single point by then.

That's it. Week 2 lines are posted on Wednesday ~10 pm GMT.

The Waters Challenge

The Waters Challenge popped up last year, hosted by Chadnov59 and NWaters365 on twitter.

The concept is simply a LVH Super Contest style challenge, without the requirement to be in Las Vegas to enter picks (or have a proxy enter your picks for you) and a little more inclusive entry fee ($100 as compared to the LVH's $1500 toll). But otherwise it's quite similar with the simple requirement to pick 5 NFL games a week ATS.

I heard about it having been a follower of Chado's for a few months at the time. To me he seemed to be quite a reputable punter plying his trade betting sports and releasing his picks to his always growing number of followers. However I was sort of new to gambling twitter at the time and I decided this contest wasn't for me.

So what's changed in the intervening 12 months?

Well for starters I've managed to build a healthier bankroll for myself and now the entry fee doesn't stand to blunt my opportunities for betting. I can now pull the $100 from my account without reducing my bet size too dramatically.

Another reason is I certainly know a lot more about betting the NFL now than I did 1 year ago. I'm much more sure of the kind of situations I want my money riding on, and which ones I want to steer clear of. I'd credit this to the many great follows I've unearthed on twitter, some more obscure than others, from whom I've learned a great deal. Also, there's nothing like getting bitten once so as to make you twice shy! (In 2012, I played an insane volume the first 2 or 3 weeks with mixed results. But I've come to learn the highs and lows of cashing 3 team teasers and losing on totals of an entire early Sunday afternoon slate are to be avoided).

I'm not sure how I'll cope with trying to put together the 5 picks I'm most confident and i'm sure that there'll be a couple of picks I'll be mulling right 'til the deadline.

Anyway, best of luck to anyone else taking part. At the time I signed up there were just over 100 participants, so it'll be pretty competitive.

I plan on having a feature post on my picks each week, where I'll have some updates on the contest and my reasoning for my picks.

Week one's post will also see the unveiling of my aforementioned "experiment". 

What's The Point?

This blog is just a little follow along of a recreational sports bettor, beginning with betting Christmas Eve A.K.A. the NFL regular season. I'll include small write ups on some of my plays, weigh-in on betting news and track my progress in one of Twitter's iterations of the famous LVH Super Contest, the Waters Challenge, along with a little side-by-side experiment.