| Friday, September 13, 2013 | ||||
| Patriots* | 1:25 AM | Jets | +11.5 | |
| Sunday, September 15, 2013 | ||||
| Eagles* | 6:00 PM | Chargers | +7.5 | |
| Ravens* | 6:00 PM | Browns | +6.5 | |
| Texans* | 6:00 PM | Titans | +9 | |
| Colts* | 6:00 PM | Dolphins | +2.5 | |
| Panthers | 6:00 PM | Bills* | +3 | |
| Falcons* | 6:00 PM | Rams | +6.5 | |
| Packers | 6:00 PM | Washington | +7.5 | |
| Kansas City* | 6:00 PM | Cowboys | +3 | |
| Bears* | 6:00 PM | Vikings | +6 | |
| Saints | 9:05 PM | Buccaneers* | +3 | |
| Lions | 9:05 PM | Cardinals* | +1.5 | |
| Raiders* | 9:25 PM | Jaguars | +5.5 | |
| Broncos | 9:25 PM | Giants* | +4.5 | |
| Monday, September 16, 2013 | ||||
| Seahawks* | 1:30 AM | 49ers | +3 | |
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 | ||||
| Bengals* | 1:40 AM | Steelers | +7 | |
Times are BST.
First off, these lines always look pretty tight when they're released on Wednesday even if by Sunday morning there'll be one or two that are off by up to 2 points. That leaves the temptation to just follow however the line is moving Saturday night which is just a fool's game. I'm just going to cap the games and worry about the numbers later.
That being said, I am very interested in the lines above that are in italics. As mentioned in my last post I was anticipating the Seahawks/49ers and Dolphins/Colts contest lines after seeing the opening lines on lineprojector.com. For the contest they've given the Dolphins +2.5 which maybe enough to deter me from personally taking them. My initial thoughts were that Miami could win outright but without the cushion of a field goal I'm not sure I can back them away from home (they went 1-7 and 2-6 in '11 and '12 respectively).
The game in Seattle is a funny one. The line opened +3 most places but has been bet down to +2.5, which would have been a very attractive pick on the Seahawks side had it been the contest line. In any case I'll likely find myself laying the three points.
As for the Bears/Vikings, I'm just happy they didn't put it at +7 because that's where I see it landing at game time. It's these little bits of value in the contest lines that I hope to exploit to resurrect my chances in the Challenge.
More on Saturday when I make my picks (no action on the Thursday game this week), and the unveiling of my handicapping experiment for this season!
First off, these lines always look pretty tight when they're released on Wednesday even if by Sunday morning there'll be one or two that are off by up to 2 points. That leaves the temptation to just follow however the line is moving Saturday night which is just a fool's game. I'm just going to cap the games and worry about the numbers later.
That being said, I am very interested in the lines above that are in italics. As mentioned in my last post I was anticipating the Seahawks/49ers and Dolphins/Colts contest lines after seeing the opening lines on lineprojector.com. For the contest they've given the Dolphins +2.5 which maybe enough to deter me from personally taking them. My initial thoughts were that Miami could win outright but without the cushion of a field goal I'm not sure I can back them away from home (they went 1-7 and 2-6 in '11 and '12 respectively).
The game in Seattle is a funny one. The line opened +3 most places but has been bet down to +2.5, which would have been a very attractive pick on the Seahawks side had it been the contest line. In any case I'll likely find myself laying the three points.
As for the Bears/Vikings, I'm just happy they didn't put it at +7 because that's where I see it landing at game time. It's these little bits of value in the contest lines that I hope to exploit to resurrect my chances in the Challenge.
More on Saturday when I make my picks (no action on the Thursday game this week), and the unveiling of my handicapping experiment for this season!
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